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Institute for Social Change

Working Papers from ISC

This paper applies a business cycle dating algorithm to monthly North West county and local authority district claimant count data to assess turning points in the economic cycle of sub-regions. We date the transition of all districts of the North West into recession beginning in June 2007. By utilising manufacturing and service sector survey information in a logistic regression model we forecast the continuation of the recession for North West region’s employment cycle in the first quarter of 2010. A longer term forecast with the Land Registry’s house price index predicts a transition to an expansion phase in the fourth quarter of 2010. (Full Paper)

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This paper seeks to understand how the drivers of civic participation in Britain and the United States have changed in the fifty years since the civic culture surveys were carried out (Almond & Verba, 1963). This paper reviews the intellectual background to The Civic Culture study, arguing that critics have tended to neglect the contribution the surveys made to understanding the civic culture, in particular they have overlooked the book’s
careful analysis of the social and demographic drivers. Using regression analysis, the paper tests whether the differences and similarities between Britain and the USA that were observed by Almond and Verba fifty years ago are still apparent today, using comparable survey items measuring trust, efficacy and political attitudes. The paper finds that the demographic underpinnings of these elements of civic culture have shifted in similar ways in both countries, such as to a more positive civic orientation for women. There is little evidence of increased stratification, especially with respect to income, though Britain remains more stratified than the US. Education has shifted in its effect, away from the absence of educational qualification to having higher education. In both countries, the older generations now have these civic orientations.
(Full Paper)

 

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    2008-2009 Working Papers