Institute for Social Change

2008/2009 Joint Seminar Series

Individual and Social Change and Methods of Measurement

Jay Gershuny, University of Oxford

23rd September 2008

Abstract

In the 1960s and 1970s there developed strong opposition to using economic growth (i.e. GNP) as the key indicator of social and economic progress. Such opposition has recently experienced a resurgence, in a somewhat different guise, in the form of concern with happiness, “domain satisfaction” and the degree of enjoyment of activities (e.g. Layard, Oswald, Kahneman and Krueger). The GNP concept implies treating activities as either means or ends. Paid (and unpaid) work generates utility only indirectly via the control it affords over consumption, whereas leisure/consumption generates utility directly. But work might be a valued end in and of itself, while leisure might be purely a means of achieving a more distant object (e.g. the “dutiful” visiting of elderly relatives). And certainly different individuals might view the same activity differently, and any activity may be more or less enjoyable in itself.

I will discuss two essentially orthogonal approaches, contrasting “process benefits” (Juster & Stafford, 1986)—time-weighted measures of enjoyment of activities—with extended versions of GNP. The underlying message of this talk is that the relationship between two (or more) sorts of accounting may be understood within the context of a single representation of a society’s time-budget. The most important point is that the different sorts of time-based accounts, with different temporal perspectives, actually or potentially yield conflicting messages. A change that has positive effects in one sort of account may yield negative effects in the other. Such conflicts are not appropriately resolved by ignoring one or other of the signals. The accounts are different, in principle equally valid, ways of evaluating a single socioeconomic circumstance. Time diary materials are an important resource for considering the potentially competing measures in a balanced manner.

Patrick Sturgis, University of Southampton

30th September 2008

Abstract

A propensity to believe that fellow citizens will not act against our interests in social and economic transactions has been identified as key to a host of favourable outcomes for both individuals and society. Yet the causes of this type of ‘generalized’ or ‘social’ trust are far from clear. To date, researchers within the social sciences have focused almost exclusively on social-developmental and political/institutional features of individuals and societies as the primary causal influences. In this paper we investigate the intriguing possibility that social trust might have a genetic, as well as an environmental basis. We use data collected from samples of monozygotic and dizygotic twins to estimate the additive genetic, shared environmental, and non-shared environmental components of trust. Our results show that the majority of the variance in a multi-item trust scale is accounted for by an additive genetic factor. On the other hand, the environmental influences experienced in common by sibling pairs have no discernable effect; the only environmental influences appear to be those that are unique to the individual. Our findings problematise the widely held view that the development of social trust occurs through a process of familial socialization at an early stage of the life course.

Wendy Sigle Rushton, London School of Economics and Political Science

7th October 2008

Michael Woolcock, University of Manchester

14th October 2008

Abstract

Drawing on an integrated mixed methods research design, we explore the dynamics of the development-conflict nexus in rural Indonesia, and the specific role of development projects in shaping the nature, extent, and trajectories of ‘everyday’ conflicts, especially those generated by the projects themselves. We find that projects that give inadequate attention to dispute resolution mechanisms in many cases stimulate local conflict, by injecting development resources themselves or less directly by exacerbating pre-existing tensions in target communities. Projects that have explicit and accessible procedures for managing disputes arising from the development process, however, are much less likely to lead to violent outcomes. We argue that such projects are more successful in addressing project-related conflicts because they establish direct procedures (such as forums, facilitators and complaints mechanisms) for dealing with tensions as they arise. These direct mechanisms are less successful in addressing broader social tensions elicited by, or external to, the development process.

Nicky Best, Imperial College London

21st October 2008

Nan Dirk de Graaf, University of Oxford

28th October 2008

Abstract

Secularization theory and Supply-side theory are considered as opponents, because of their contrary predictions. Secularization theory predicts that religious practice and belief are directly related and the trend is towards fewer individuals attending church and towards fewer individuals expressing religious beliefs. According to the Supply-side theory religious belief is an exogenous and largely stable phenomenon. A decrease in religious practice is not necessarily accompanied by a weakening of religious belief or an adoption of secular ideas. Another related issue is that there is assumed to be an increasingly private conception of belief with the accompanying more vague versions of it, i.e. people are less occupied with institutionalized beliefs but still belief in 'something'. If it is indeed true that the demand for religion does not change over time, then we should find no decline in the more vague nontraditional religious conceptions. I will test these competing predictions with an international data-set as well as with repeated cross-sectional

data-sets from the Netherlands. Furthermore, I provide explanations for the trends in traditional Christian faith and belief in the supernatural obtained from the Dutch data. These explanations are tested employing regression models and a counter-factional simulation technique.

Chris Phillipson, Keele University

4th November 2008

Abstract

This paper discusses findings from a survey that studied changes to family and community life in old age. The research examined the social networks and relationships of older people in three areas of England: Bethnal Green (London), Woodford (Essex) and Wolverhampton (West Midlands). These areas were chosen because they were they had been the location of research in the 1940s and 1950s which had produced influential findings about family life in old age. This research (from Young and Willmott, Townsend and Sheldon) was used to represent a ‘baseline’ against which change could be assessed. The paper will examine the network measure used in the research and the merits of the methodological approach taken. The paper will examine some findings from the research, in particular the shift from an old age experienced within the context of ‘family groups’ to one shaped by ‘personal communities’. The discussion will highlight the different ways in which social relations are maintained as contrasted with fifty years ago, notably with the importance of the ‘couple relationship’, the importance of friends, and the management of dispersed social networks. The paper will conclude with an assessment of the problems associated with conducting survey research of the kind developed for the study.

Christopher T. Whelan, Economic & Social Research Institute, Dublin

11th November 2008

Abstract

A joint concern with multidimensionality and dynamics is a defining feature of the pervasive use of the terminology of social exclusion in the European Union. The notion of social exclusion focuses attention on economic vulnerability in the sense of exposure to risk and uncertainty. Sociological concerns with these issues has been associated with the thesis that risk and uncertainty have become more pervasive and extend substantially beyond the working class.

This paper combines features of recent approaches to statistical modelling of poverty dynamics and multidimensional deprivation in order to develop our understanding of the dynamics of economic vulnerability. An analysis involving nine countries and covering the first five waves of the European Community Household Panel shows that, across nations and time, it is possible to identify an economically vulnerable class. This class is characterised by heightened risk of falling below a critical resource level, exposure to material deprivation and experience of subjective economic stress.

Cross-national differentials in persistence of vulnerability are wider than in the case of income poverty and less affected by measurement error. Economic vulnerability profiles vary across welfare regimes in a manner broadly consistent with our expectations. Variation in the impact of social class within and across countries provides no support for the argument that its role in structuring such risk, has become much less important. Our findings suggest that it is possible to accept the importance of the emergence of new forms of social risk and acknowledge significance of efforts do develop welfare states policies involving a shift of opporunities and decision making on to individuals without accepting the ‘death of class’ thesis.

Tom Snijders, Universities of Groningen & Oxford

18th November 2008

Abstract

Social networks are inherently dynamic, and yet, in the past, not much of social network research has been of a longitudinal nature. In this seminar the focus will be on methods for analyzing social network dynamics that have been developed in the last 10 years, and now are beginning to be used more and more. One basic issue that such methods have to grapple with are the mutual dependencies between network ties. Another issue is the fact that network dynamics is very much a feedback process, but longitudinal observations of networks mostly are done according to a panel design; such a design offers intermittent snapshots but not a record of the intermediate steps that feed back upon one another. Stochastic actor-based models provide an approach to deal with these issues. These are models for the evolution of a social network in which it is assumed that the actors, represented by the nodes in the network, control their outgoing ties, subject to inertia and contextual constraints, and with an element of randomness to represent the unpredictability of social behaviour. Such models can be used to simulate the network evolution and they can be used as statistical models for data analysis, offering a framework in which parameters that characterize the evolution process can be estimated and tested. A particularly interesting elaboration is the co-evolution of networks and behaviour, where next to the network one observes individual behaviour that is thought to be subject to network influence and also to be among the determinants of network choice. An example is the co- evolution of adolescent friendship and smoking, where friends may be chosen in part in view of their similar smoking habits, and simultaneously friends may be influenced in their own smoking habits by what their friends do.

The principles of the model and method will be presented with a number of examples. As is the case with other new research methods, the development of these methods is fraught with obstacles and leads itself to new questions. Some of such issues have to do with the software implementation (in the Siena program) and its dissemination, and with extensions to other data structures, e.g., valued networks.

Bruce Western, Harvard University

25th November 2008

Abstract

From 1975 to 2005, the variance in incomes of American families with children increased by two thirds. Labor market studies of the growth in inequality emphasize the rising pay of college graduates, while demographers study changes in family structure. We join these lines of research by viewing income inequality as the product of the distribution of earnings in the labor market and the pooling of incomes in families. We develop this framework with a decomposition of family income inequality using annual data from the March Current Population Survey. The analysis shows that educational inequalities in incomes and single parenthood contributed to income inequality, but these effects were offset by rising educational attainment and women’s employment. Most of the increase in family income inequality was due to increasing within-group inequality that was widely shared across family types
and levels of schooling.

Martyn Andrews, University of Manchester

2nd December 2008

Abstract

Using nationally representative, longitudinal data from the first 14 waves of the British Household Panel Survey we examine the labour market returns to inter-regional migration in Great Britain. Controlling for endogeneity, heterogeneity and selfselection, we find substantial long-run wage premiums associated with migration for both males and females who move for job-related reasons. There is, however, no evidence that moving across regions increases the probability of employment for males and females; in fact, some female movers experience a long-run employment penalty.

“Do strong family ties inhibit trust?”

John Ermisch, University of Essex

9th December 2008

Abstract
We provide direct evidence that people with strong family ties have a lower level of trust in strangers than people with weak family ties, and argue that this association is causal. We also investigate the mechanisms that underlie this effect, and provide evidence that these revolve around the level of outward exposure: factors that limit exposure limit subjects’ experience as well as motivation to deal with strangers.  Our findings are based on experimental data derived from a new design of the ‘trust game’ combined with panel survey data, both drawn from a near-representative sample of the British population.

“'Why We Still Hate Politics'”

Colin Hay, University of Sheffield

20th January 2009

Abstract

Politics was once a term with an array of broadly positive connotations, associated with public scrutiny, deliberation and accountability. Yet today it is an increasingly dirty word, typically synonymous with duplicity, corruption, inefficiency and undue interference in matters both public and private. How has this come to pass? Why do we hate and despise politics and politicians so much? How pervasive is the contemporary condition of political disenchantment and disaffection? And what can be done about it?

In his paper, Colin Hay brings together themes from his book Why We Hate Politics with more recentwork to present an alternative diagnosis of the condition of poltical disaffection and disengagement afflicting the advanced liberal democracies.

Ray Chambers, Wollongong University

27th January 2009

Abstract

A confidence interval is a standard way of expressing uncertainty about the value of a population parameter.
In survey sampling most methods of confidence interval estimation rely on 'reasonable' assumptions to be true in order to achieve nominal coverage levels. Typically these correspond to replacing complex sample statistics by large sample approximations and invoking central limit behaviour. Unfortunately, coverage of these intervals in practice is often much less than anticipated, particularly in unbalanced samples. In this talk, I will explore an alternative approach, based on a generalisation of M-quantile regression analysis, to defining an interval estimate that captures our uncertainty about an unknown population quantity. These M-quantile-based intervals seem more robust and stable than 'ordinary' confidence intervals, particularly in unbalanced situations. Furthermore, they do not involve estimation of second order quantities like variances, which is often difficult and timeconsuming for non-linear estimators. Empirical results illustrating this alternative approach will be presented and I will discuss implications for its use.

Donatella Della Porta, European University Institute

Sponsored by Democracy, Citizens and Elections Research Network

3rd February 2009

Abstract
Globalization, in its multiple understandings, creates challenges and opportunities for social movements, transforming their action strategies, cognitive frames and organizational structures. In particular, neoliberal, economic globalization has been the main target of lively protests that have spread world-wide, intensifying transnational cultural exchanges, as well as contributing to the development of global politics. In this seminar, Prof. della Porta will present evidence from a mix-method research focusing on the global justice movement in Europe, its organizations and
activists in 6 European countries and at the transnational level. Data will be presented from frame analysis of the documents of about 250 social movement organizations and interviews with their representatives, as well as from surveys involving thousands of activists. Evidences from in-depth group interviews and participant observation will be
discussed as well.

John Keane, University of Manchester

10th February 2009

Abstract

This talk will briefly overview the areas of data mining and text mining. Applications in a number of example domains, such as medical prediction, disease identification, intelligent transportation and statistical disclosure will be highlighted with the associated algorithm or model development. Related theoretical advances will be mentioned.

Jacqueline O'Reilly &  Tizana Nazio, University of Brighton & University of Turin

17th February 2009

Abstract

This presentation sets out to examine the capabilities debate empirically using data from the European Social Survey and the European Community Household Panel. This examines normative gender regimes in Poland, theUK, Spain and Denmark from the ESS. It looks at the extent to which these constrain or enable particular sets of options around care and work choices for individual men and women in these countries. Using the ECHP data we then examine transition patterns between combinations of work and care for households in Spain, Denmarkand the UK. The analyses make use of longitudinal data to trace transitions between breadwinner and dual earner households in these countries. We found that partners' reductions or increase in their attachment to the labour market are differentially shaped by their familial circumstances (with notable countries differences), but similarly influenced by their satisfaction with their activity and their employment sector.

Mark Franklin, European University Institute

24th February 2009

Abstract

Under what circumstances can parties proressively lose support to the point where they are no longer ”normal parties of government” (or less attractive coalition partners)? Under what circumstances can parties progressively gain support, so that they become normal parties of government (or more attractive coalition partners)? Why do these developments sometimes occur quite rapidly (in the US in 1932, in
Britain in 1945, in Italy in 1992) while more usually they occur quite slowly? This paper represents a first cut at developing a theoretical approach that can encompass all sorts of electoral change in all sorts of political systems – not just classical realignments but contemporary “moods, cycles and swings”. In it I develop ideas regarding the continuing importance of habitual support for political parties even after the decline of cleavage politics has run its course, and the consequential importance even in the world of today of generational replacement for long-term political change.

Nan Lin, Duke University

3rd March 2009

Abstract
In this seminar, Professor Lin will give a brief account of his theory on social capital, supported by his findings from a recent national survey in the US. In his conception, social capital resides in the resources embedded in social networks, and social capital accumulation is a process of investment in social relations for expected returns. Using
the ‘position generator’ method developed as a survey instrument, he shows that over and above human capital, social capital has a significant effect on occupational
attainment. He also explores the stratification effects of social capital (gender, ethnicity and class) and considers the structuration impacts of social capital in contemporary capitalist society.
Professor Nan Lin is one of the world's most celebrated scholars on social capital. He has written extensively on social capital, including Social Capital: A Theory of Social
Structure and Action 2001, Social Capital: Theory and Research 2001 (eds with Cook and Burt), and Social Capital: An International Research Program, 2008 (eds with Erikson).

Following his seminar on Tuesday, Professor Nan Lin will give another lecture titled ‘Social Capital and Social Stratification’ at a special half-day workshop held in his
honour by the ISC on social capital and social change on Wednesday (Room 3.204, University Place, 13:30- 17:10pm).

Cees van der Eijk, University of Nottingham

10th March 2009

Lindsay Paterson, University of Edinburgh

17th March 2009

Abstract
One of the most stable findings of research on civic participation is the correlation between educational attainment and various attributes that are relevant to democracy, such as propensity to be active, to vote, and to hold views on important public issues. There is also some evidence – from, eg, the British birth cohort studies, as analysed by Bynner, Schuller and Feinstein – that, in adulthood, participating in educational courses is causally linked to changes in these measures. But three caveats, at least, have to be mentioned. One is the well-known research by Nie, Junn and Stehlik-Barry in the USA which showed that rising overall levels of education, while making populations more liberal, did not make them more likely to vote; Nie et al, and also Helliwell and Putnam, have then suggested that, for some civic outcomes, education works as a positional rather than as an absolute good. The second reservation derives from research which examines the link between pedagogical themes and these civic outcomes (eg by Campbell, and by Nie and Hillygus): the
manner in which an educational course is taught and learnt is important, in that critical citizens have first to learn to be critical thinkers. And the third matter is the nature of the citizens which education might help to create. To put this point rather crudely: is education democratically desirable because it makes people think,
regardless of the conclusions of their thinking, or because it makes people socially liberal (which is the general tenor of most of the writing on this topic)? So: what kind of education matters for social attitudes and civic participation by adults? The seminar paper will report statistical analysis relating to this question, drawing upon the
1958 and 1970 British birth cohorts, the British Social Attitudes Survey and the British Household Panel Study.
Lindsay Paterson is professor of educational policy at Edinburgh University. His current research interests are in social mobility, in the relationship between education and civic values, and in the history of Scottish education in the twentieth-century.

Nick Bailey, University of Glasgow

24th March 2009

Ray Pahl, University of Essex

31st March 2009

Abstract
Studies of community undertaken over a period of some forty-five years by Ray Pahl and his colleagues are reconsidered to show how the significance of 'communities-in-the-mind' has been inadequately appreciated. The distinction made by Clifford Geertz
between 'experience-near' and 'experience-distant' is used to sharpen up certain assumptions and approaches of community sociologists, including Frankenberg. Some
possible explanations for the decline in the perceived importance of comminity studies from the late 1960s are discussed in the context of the growing centrality of social
class in sociological analysis in the 1970s and 1980s.
Reference is made to recent research on personal communities by Liz Spencer and the author to illustrate how an ellision between 'experience-near' and 'experience-distant' approaches may be achieved. It is concluded that the imputed community-on-the-ground, often based on materialistic assumptions, should not be conceptually privileged over the real community-in-the mind.